Weather app, schmeather app

I’ve had a theory on weather predictions for the past decade or so. It goes like this: Sometime, long ago, an editor or manager of some news service told his meteorologist that it would be wonderful for circulation if he could predict the weather two days ahead instead of just one. The meteorologist, knowing his craft, said that to do so was folly. With the innumerable things that can affect weather, he said, accuracy wouldn’t be better than 50-50. One day, he relayed, was pushing it; two was a crapshoot. To hell with it, the editor replied. Give us two and people will think it’s better than nothing.

So the meteorologist started the two-day forecast and it was a hit. Despite its inaccuracy, the public figured this news outlet must know more than the others, something to do with modern technology.

Then the editor at a competing news organization asked his meteorologist why he wasn’t giving them two days, to which the man replied the same as the first: It’s nothing more than an educated guess. Well, dammit! We look like Johnny-Come-Latelys. Pump it up to three days! And so the second meteorologist did his best to predict three days out.

Then we had five-day forecasts, and then seven and now 10. How accurate is 10? They have trouble with hurricanes that far out, and those tend to be really big, so I’m guessing a 10-day prediction has some correlation to a broken clock being right twice a day.

Faithfully each morning I open the weather app on my phone and check the latest predictions for the coming days, and sure enough it’s just as apt to be wrong as right (often even on the same day) and I wondered how my random guesses would compare. So I’m going to try predicting the weather without any satellites, models or computers. It’s Sunday, so I’m going to guess the weather for Seacoast New Hampshire for next Sunday. That’s seven days out. Then I’ll note my phone’s prediction on Friday and keep up the guesses for the weeks or months after and see how complete guesses stack up.

Next Sunday, Sept. 17, in my area, will be partly cloudy and 72.

The game’s afoot!
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